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Greece failed to provide the info required for the Wed meeting ECB etc. which is cancelled now, more stalling, this is not going away, plus another what? 7 downgrades? how does the rating agency downgrade Portugal below an already existing "junk" status, "super junk"? And UK being put on a warning to boot. Look for the euro to continue to tank and commodities fall.
BOT K Kinross
BOT more HND back after selling some yesterday
Should have bought some of the hzd, funny how hbu is playing on the positive side. I think I will wait just before the Euro probs are resolved.
Thanks for responses and it is accurate of being contango but not much as of now and it looks like every commodity has contango and it all depends on volatility for how much.
Very real. It was put together to demonstrate that if the status quo is maintained, the US is marching towards inevitable bankruptcy. A few numbers really stand out. 56 trillion total debt or 180K per person, annual debt in excess of GDP... The model is broken and the tough decisions aren't being made. Sounds a lot like the old GM and Chrysler with their broken business models...
Thanks Red, just wondering, can you chime up in terms of what you think will happen on a greek default, this is assuming that yes they get their money but it only secures an eventual "managed default"... I am trying to put the equation together... I would assume that a couple or bunch of banks would be taken out due to exposure and then the contagion effect would start to run... ie to first Portugal going under the microscope.
My thought is that would drive the euro into the toilet which may lead to defalation, of oil gold and silver and of course an equity run down... my main concern is trying to figure how gold silver and oil will be reacting on a default, assuming it takes the euro down at the same time. Looking at 08, gold dropped heavily then gained back, I dont see where holding gold while it colapses then gains back is a real winning position. I want to be short but cant figure where the minimal risk is, could be to short the three exchanges hxd hsd hqd or short equities in general say HGD or just short the commodities if deflation is likely. I ask people what they think would happen when a country defaults, nobody seems to have a clue. My thinking that gold would go down is based on the masses running from gold to US treasuries, we have seen this in the past two months, that is what has taken gold from $1900 to where it is now (along with profit taking) to cover other losing positions...
1...Greece defaults...'default' in the sense that triggers the untold number of 'credit default swaps' that are hovering around out there....who are the counter parties to these & do they have enough $$$ in the pot to cover...
...... what stance will the global central bankers take now?......especially the ECB as it will be the central bank @ the 'center'
..the US will grimace as the U$ spikes up...bad news for exports, therefore bad news for employment, therefore bad news for Mr Prez..what will the Fed do/say? (..& U$ spikes up/oil & gold spike down)
..China is somewhat hedged...they lose orders from major customer (Europe) but their U$3T of treasuries appreciates...what will China do/say?..China is Sh** scared of Greece style street demos...they cannot handle another Tianamen Square incident in 2012 like they handled it in '??
2....like in '08, 'everything' goes down & 'everyone' wants out until the smoke/dust settles & a clearer picture emerges...the swing trading opportunities will be mind boggling...the Mainstream Media will be a Bear's Best Friend ..if you are playing Horizons leveraged ETFs, anything w/a "D"* in it should be a profitable trade (*..w/the exception of NG which behaved rather seasonally btw July-Dec '08)
3....I read somewhere recently that major Sh** can/will take place in the currency mkts if/when the Euro shows definite/strong signs of falling blo 1.20 & the U$ starts showing definite/strong signs of surging past 82 (..if anyone else read this, pls redirect me bc I can't seem to find it again..Tkx)
4...my personal caveat to all Members who are 'at home' traders...Be Careful if the Poop Hits the Propellor in the coming wks....in Fall '08 I was on the wrong side of the trade & got the crap knocked out of me by Dec'08...Averaging Down killed me & over the Xmas/NY break I got my sh** together & did another 'Operation Broken Arrow' through mid March-ish '09..that was not a fun period for KJF!!
Thanks Red, just wondering, can you chime up in terms of what you think will happen on a greek default,
Anybody care to take a shot at this question?
Greece has been a train wreck happening in slow motion and it seems that all parties involved (except the Greeks) are ready for it's inevitable default.
The central banks have injected 500 million Euros in their banking system in the last 4 weeks with an expected trillion in the next 4. Banks will now be fully capitalized and ready for the Greek blast off. Bond yields have been falling steadily in Italy, Portugal and Spain.
If the deal falls trough, there may be a slight reaction but don't be surprised if the markets rally now that this is finally concluded.
So basically, I don't expect a Lehman style event. Unlike 2008 which came in as a shock, the preparations for this are nearly 2 years in the making.
The only real surprise may come from the Greeks as they get used to the taste of rat meat...