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$1 Nat Gas? Really?

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  • #31
    Originally posted by ddegiorgio View Post
    In its Earnings report (http://www.chk.com/News/Articles/Pages/1663531.aspx), Chesapeake Energy said that it had curtailed about 1 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas production.

    But it also said it expects 2012 net natural gas production to average 2.65 billion cubic feet per day, down only 100 million cfd, or 4%, from 2011.

    This means that for 2012, the switch from pure dry gas plays to mixed rigs will yield a mere 10% annual reduction in the actual volumes of Nat Gas production. It's going to take a while to get to much-needed 3/5 bcf/day reduction to rebalance the market in a meaningful fashion.

    I would not be impressed if I see another bout to the downside if the market cooly factors this in.
    I had responded to this contention in the "shut-in" thread. Posting it here:

    Wrong on a couple of counts. One, the 0.1 bcf/d reduction in production is CHK's net production number. CHK's working interest in its wells is just under 50%. Which means, on a gross basis that translates into about 0.21 bcf/d. Second, these numbers assume the shut-in is lifted by October, which means the production reduction YoY over the next 9 months would be ~0.28 bcf/d. Third, it is erroneous to compare with 2011 average production since CHK has been steadily growing its production through the last year. A more relevant measure would be to compare with FY 11 exit rate - based on that the impact of shut-in would be close to 0.6 bcf/d.

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    • #32


      If Robry Data are still correct production is falling. -5bcf/day from the peak (in green)

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      • #33
        Originally posted by prebuffo View Post


        If Robry Data are still correct production is falling. -5bcf/day from the peak (in green)
        Prebuffo.

        Production data would appear to not be updated.

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        • #34
          Originally posted by wolfoptiontrading View Post
          Prebuffo.

          Production data would appear to not be updated.
          Sorry wolf I don't understand what you exactly mean. I take the data from this forum.

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          • #35
            Originally posted by wolfoptiontrading View Post
            Prebuffo.

            Production data would appear to not be updated.
            how is roby getting calculating this?

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            • #36
              Originally posted by prebuffo View Post
              Sorry wolf I don't understand what you exactly mean. I take the data from this forum.
              Prebuffo.

              The production data appears to not have been updated and would/should be revised up to match the weeks above.

              His production data has more volatility than the production data I have. I am not showing declines in production in excess of 1 bcf/d if even that high.

              To show a decline of 20 bcf of production from w/e 1/13 and compare that to w/e 2/23 or nearly 3 bcf/d less in production, I would rather take a **** in my pants than to show that on my model.

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              • #37
                Originally posted by wolfoptiontrading View Post
                Prebuffo.

                The production data appears to not have been updated and would/should be revised up to match the weeks above.

                His production data has more volatility than the production data I have. I am not showing declines in production in excess of 1 bcf/d if even that high.

                To show a decline of 20 bcf of production from w/e 1/13 and compare that to w/e 2/23 or nearly 3 bcf/d less in production, I would rather take a **** in my pants than to show that on my model.
                Ok Wolf now I understand.
                But...
                "I don't trust those Robry data" was sufficent to me.
                Why are you so aggressive?

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                • #38
                  He is a Wolf, lol.
                  Options - A good way to not get your head ripped off ;-)

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                  • #39
                    Originally posted by prebuffo View Post
                    Ok Wolf now I understand.
                    But...
                    "I don't trust those Robry data" was sufficent to me.
                    Why are you so aggressive?
                    Prebuffo

                    Other than being in a dog eat dog world?

                    1. The data posted up in the Robry section is not always up to date and gets updated later and this has occurred for well since I have bothered to look and watch it.

                    2. There would have been pig squealing like a scene out of Deliverance if we lost 3 bcf/d of production.

                    3. Ben would have mentioned the decline in production in the EIA storage week as otherwise the results would be vastly different for the draw. He is a very nice man. I probably would have been bitching (in not a nice manner) somewhere in the forum, maybe.

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                    • #40
                      Wolf....how are you modeling daily production? I don't want your model but if you could share some information, it would be really helpful. You can email me at pateljainik@hotmail.com. Thanks in advance!!

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                      • #41
                        wow... how exciting is this $1 gas

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