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Storage for EIA report date 2/23/12

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  • Storage for EIA report date 2/23/12

    this weeks storage poll is for week ending 2/17 and reported by EIA on 2/23.


    observations:
    total stocks are 817 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 765 Bcf above the 5-year average.
    i am estimating that our storage surplus has peaked; moving forward we should continually start cutting away at this.
    temperatures last week were colder than both last year and average, helping boost commercial and residential demand.
    generation demand jumped by more than 2bcf/d from the previous week.
    nuke utilization remains roughly 5300 MW lower than normal for this time of year, equating to roughly 1.5bcf/d of additional gas fired demand.
    i estimate coal-to-gas switch is responsible for another ~4 bcf/d of additional gas fired demand.
    domestic production declined by over 0.5bcf/d from the previous week as producing regions supplies (GOM/Haynes) continue to drop.
    offsetting was imports from LNG and Canada, which were up around 0.5bcf/d from the previous week as colder Northeast supported flows.




    NOAA's weekly data didn't update this week for some reason so i'll post up WSI's gas population weighted figures instead.

    HDD -
    West: 36.04 (34.97 normal)
    Producing: 22.04 (18.05 normal)
    East: 133.50 (132.21 normal)
    Total U.S.: 191.59 (185.23 normal)

    CDD -
    West: 0.00 (0.02 normal)
    Producing: 0.11 (0.35 normal)
    East 0.85 (1.04 normal)
    Total U.S.: 0.96 (1.41 normal)




    storage:
    same week last yr: -102
    5 yr avg: -145
    *note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia: http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls

    my current estimate is -174 bcf
    35
    0 to -150 Bcf
    5.71%
    2
    -150 to -160 Bcf
    14.29%
    5
    -160 to -170 Bcf
    42.86%
    15
    -170 to -180 Bcf
    22.86%
    8
    -180 to -250 Bcf
    14.29%
    5

    The poll is expired.


  • #2
    EMD survey:

    Early View Estimates (17) for 2/23/12 (in Bcf):
    -165; -172; -155; -135; -130; -171; -166; -155; -171; -170; -170; -174; -185; -145; -170; -179; -165.

    Range: -130 to -185 Bcf

    Early View Survey Avg: -163.4 Bcf
    EARLY VIEW Survey Median: -170 Bcf
    Standard Deviation: 14.9
    ***
    Current Tally: 2,261 Bcf
    Last year, same week: -102 Bcf
    5 Year Avg : -145 Bcf

    Comment


    • #3
      Had a hard time one the P region this week. Wide range there and whatever I choose impacts my final number. Waiting for additional information.

      Likely final will be
      E -97
      W -11
      P- -55 to -70 range of outcomes.

      I liked -61.

      Comment


      • #4
        Tot -169
        e -101
        w -13
        p -55

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by ben2008 View Post
          i am estimating that our storage surplus has peaked; moving forward we should continually start cutting away at this.
          little surprised by this statement going into the shoulder season?

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by op1kenobi View Post
            little surprised by this statement going into the shoulder season?
            it's all relative to past years and the five year average. It doesn't mean the glut won't be ridiculous in the first shoulder season. It just means 814 Bcf is likely the largest overhang we'll see this year. Unless the summer is cool . As Eric Nuttall blogged : "Investors in general still donít realize just how
            bad the storage situation is." Professionals love to suck in the average guy in a bull run hype and then blow it out. They do it every year, several times a year.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Gastrader View Post
              it's all relative to past years and the five year average. It doesn't mean the glut won't be ridiculous in the first shoulder season. It just means 814 Bcf is likely the largest overhang we'll see this year. Unless the summer is cool . As Eric Nuttall blogged : "Investors in general still donít realize just how
              bad the storage situation is." Professionals love to suck in the average guy in a bull run hype and then blow it out. They do it every year, several times a year.
              Gas

              Its going to be a fun year ahead

              Wolf

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by op1kenobi View Post
                little surprised by this statement going into the shoulder season?
                yes, i have modeled some scenarios in which our sizable storage surplus is reduced down under 200bcf by end of june.



                assuming natural gas prices remain this competitive with coal, we should see the full impact of fuel switching this spring as weather becomes less relevant.
                i estimate this market is more than 4bcf/d under-supplied on a weather adjusted basis.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by ben2008 View Post
                  i estimate this market is more than 4bcf/d under-supplied on a weather adjusted basis.
                  careful Ben, you are gonna freak out all the shorts / every member of this board with that kind of talk

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    lol. yeah, i knew i might make some nervous when i said i believe that we've reached peak storage surplus for the yr.
                    this market appears to have become much more elastic.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by ben2008 View Post
                      lol. yeah, i knew i might make some nervous when i said i believe that we've reached peak storage surplus for the yr.
                      this market appears to have become much more elastic.
                      so for my ignorance, would you say there's more elasticity on the downside or upside over the next few weeks?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        not sure i understand your question.
                        but i see greater supply/demand price sensitivity in general.
                        both higher and lower prices should now elict a greater response going forward, which is a big improvement over the inelastic market we've had the past 3 yrs.
                        we are finally trying to find an equilibrium.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by ben2008 View Post
                          lol. yeah, i knew i might make some nervous when i said i believe that we've reached peak storage surplus for the yr.
                          this market appears to have become much more elastic.
                          Originally posted by iamgassy View Post
                          careful Ben, you are gonna freak out all the shorts / every member of this board with that kind of talk
                          it feels that the somewhat muted trading today might be starting to show the elasticity of this mkt.
                          CHK apparently confirmed the 1bcf/day redux today according to flame.
                          it may hold a surprise for the shorts.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by iamgassy View Post
                            careful Ben, you are gonna freak out all the shorts / every member of this board with that kind of talk
                            Although I respect Ben's opinion on storage data for weekly reporting, this is hard to believe as no one else has expressed this 4 Bcf/day undersupply. This is huge and if it's true I think we should all exit our shorts and start going long for the first time in 4 years. Shooting fish in a barrel is over.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              storage injection/draw per heating degree.

                              Comment

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