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Storage for EIA report date 5/16/13

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  • Storage for EIA report date 5/16/13

    this weeks storage poll is for week ending 5/10 and reported by EIA on 5/16.


    observation:
    total degree demand was below normal and lower than the same week last year.
    nearly all HDDs were concentrated in the central U.S. boosting residential and commercial heating demand above what the national figures would indicate.
    total res/comm demand increased by around 9bcf on the week according to my figures.
    the increased HDDs in the central U.S. also helped boost industrial demand by around 1 bcf from the previous week.
    very low CDDs helped reduce demand for power generation, pushing it lower by around 15bcf from the week earlier.
    further helping push generation demand lower was an increase in nuclear output from the week earlier along with higher renewable output from hydro and wind.
    pipeline and processing facility maintenance slowed domestic supply by a few bcf from the week earlier.
    offsetting was approximately an equal increase in imports from Canada to help serve the increased res/comm demand in the upper Midwest.



    storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) --
    last week: 57 (8cdd 49hdd)
    previous week: 62 (12cdd 50hdd)
    same week last yr: 60 (31cdd 29hdd)
    avg: 69 (14cdd 55hdd)
    next wk fcst 57 (21cdd 36hdd)
    * source: NOAA


    storage:
    same week last yr: 56
    5-yr avg: 83
    *note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls

    my current estimate is 100 bcf
    29
    Below 85 Bcf
    6.90%
    2
    86 to 90 Bcf
    3.45%
    1
    91 to 95 Bcf
    20.69%
    6
    96 to 100 bcf
    44.83%
    13
    Above 101 Bcf
    24.14%
    7

  • #2
    my following two weeks are currently 94, 107

    Comment


    • #3
      i am traveling this week so won't be checking in as frequently.
      any of you going to the Benposium event in Houston this week? i'll be there on Wednesday.
      would love to say hello in person!

      Comment


      • #4
        Interesting that your number is at the top end of the poll Ben. Does that mean you think there is significant risk to a lower number?

        Comment


        • #5
          most other analyst estimates i've seen so far have been in the low to mid 90s so i base the poll scale to fit that.
          my figures seem to be running higher than consensus for the past several weeks.

          Comment


          • #6
            does anybody know what the swap is trading at?

            TIA

            Comment


            • #7
              93-97 last

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by ben2008 View Post
                my following two weeks are currently 94, 107
                great, thanks. have a nice trip, Ben.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Sorry, should have posted here on this thread instead:


                  Originally posted by kelkharadly View Post
                  It's useful to see which group correlates best to price with their positions. If you see money managers net long, positions reducing and price dropping, you can try to anticipate that this trend will continue. So you continue to watch money managers positions along with price.
                  KH
                  Thanks again.
                  Looks like that lack of surge in short additions and big time down in longs last Friday caused the 3.90 - 3.88 to hold up very well.
                  so far the price action is just showing the oversold bounce.

                  Will this Thursday's report cause the flush in longs and then slow increase in short positions?
                  or
                  The longs will try to take the shorts for a ride to the upside again via pain train?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Bentek flow still @ 94?

                    Im looking at around 103

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Methpane, do you have a similar game plan like you did last week?

                      Here's a game I should have posted a bit earlier in the week.

                      I'll list the stg number ranges, and you guess the closing price.

                      <70: 4.25
                      70-74: 4.20
                      75-79: 4.15
                      80-84: 4.07
                      85-89: 4.00
                      90-94: 3.86
                      95-99: 3.80
                      100-104: 3.75
                      >105: 3.70

                      I did that w/out trying to get cute and cover all the possible ranges of settles. Now as I look back, I don't have a single 3.9 handle. I guess that would make me a buyer of what is already a very expensive same day straddle. So I'll pass.

                      I could be understating the support in the mid 380's and I could be overstating the weakness of some shorts. We'll see.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        <70: 4.60-4.75
                        70-74: 4.50
                        75-79: 4.45
                        80-84: 4.30
                        85-89: 4.25
                        90-94: 4.12
                        95-99: 3.90
                        100-104: 3.85
                        >105: 3.70

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          correction

                          Originally posted by jatt View Post
                          <70: 4.60-4.75
                          70-74: 4.50
                          75-79: 4.45
                          80-84: 4.25
                          85-89: 4.18
                          90-94: 4.00
                          95-99: 3.90
                          100-104: 3.85
                          >105: 3.70

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by kelkharadly View Post
                            Bentek flow still @ 94?

                            Im looking at around 103
                            me too- i see the lowest weather impacted data we will likely see this year and people predict 90- it will be interesting

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by jatt View Post
                              <70: 4.60-4.75
                              70-74: 4.50
                              75-79: 4.45
                              80-84: 4.30
                              85-89: 4.25
                              90-94: 4.12
                              95-99: 3.90
                              100-104: 3.85
                              >105: 3.70
                              Way too extreme. If we pint 100 we won't drop to 3.85. 105 will not = 3.70

                              Comment

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