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Hurricane Season 2015

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  • Hurricane Season 2015

    P'ffff ... short is the trade .... TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    800 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Surface observations and preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve
    Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the area of
    low pressure located about 200 miles southeast of the middle Texas
    coast indicate that the center has become better defined since
    earlier today. If these trends continue, advisories will be
    initiated later this evening on Tropical Storm Bill.

    1. Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds with
    the low are near 50 mph. Interests in and along the northwestern
    Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
    system as it moves northwestward toward the Texas coast. Regardless
    of tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are likely
    along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast, and possible in
    extreme southwestern Louisiana, tonight and Tuesday. The system is
    also likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding across
    portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana. For additional
    information, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by
    your local National Weather Service forecast office.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

  • #2
    Short is the trade for oil and natural gas as there is no hurricane in queue as per 2:00 AM ET NOAA report re "Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days." @ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

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    • #3
      with el nino quietly in the background this little participated in forum might be the place to be. after going through the forecasts, which main ones, i presume, you are all familiar with it seems the basic weather has been priced in for ng. what i am concerned about is the potential for supply (reports indicate production supply is being cut back drastically) shocks. demand will be steady given the weather, but psychologically in the short-term it is that spike upward that concerns me. on balance i have taken un unhedged bear position.

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      • #4
        sorry, a typo. simply unhedged.

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        • #5
          usd is set to rally on greece demise, enjoy, there is no deal and will not be, short is the trade on oil if you are interested in making profits, fact. glta. so glad to be out of my short overnight natural gas, what a scam natural gas is imho, thankful for the 6% i made today 75% on margin, hee haw just before natural gas vs rallied again, such junk! $-)

          such bullshht the hurricane hype was for the sheeple suckers!

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          • #6
            ERCOT wind gen running very low with the calm ahead of Bill. Looks like it will ramp up tomorrow through Thurs and cut gas burn in Texas.

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            • #7
              BILL: Chevron Corp CVX.N and Royal Dutch Shell RDSa.L have evacuated non-essential workers from oil platforms but have not shut production in a basin responsible for nearly a fifth of U.S. crude oil output.

              Chevron is the No. 3 oil producer in the U.S. Gulf, and Shell is No. 1. Second-ranked BP Plc BP.N said it was monitoring the storm but operations continued as normal for now.

              Other operators, including Hess Corp HES.N, Exxon Mobil Corp XOM.N, Murphy Oil Corp MUR.N, BHP Billiton BHP.AX and Williams Cos Inc WMZ.N, said they were monitoring the weather, but hadn't evacuated any workers and production was unaffected.

              Onshore, several major refiners with plants along the Texas Gulf Coast said they were preparing for the storm expected to reach shore Tuesday morning.

              LyondellBasell LYB.N said it was deploying sandbags at its refining and chemical facilities, and Shell said only workers essential to fuel production would work Tuesday.

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              • #8
                Hurricanes are mostly water bombs that kills the demand and as muzd correctly pointed out they boost the wind generation. Clouds cut the sun intensity. Days of 8+% of natgas generation in GOM are gone long time ago and we barely get 4% from GOM.

                Essentially, hurricanes are boon for the 'short the rally' crowd, works like a charm.

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                • #9


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                  • #10
                    Wednesday, June 24, 2015 3:28 PM ET
                    Below-normal hurricane activity expected in 2015 Atlantic season

                    In a regular update to its Atlantic Basin hurricane forecast, Weather Services International left its outlook for below-normal activity unchanged during the 2015 season.

                    The Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, is expected to witness nine named storms, five hurricanes and one major hurricane, WSI said in a press release June 23. The forecast represents no change from the agency's predictions made in either April or May.

                    Tropical storms measure winds of 39 mph or higher, while hurricanes reach 74 mph or higher. Major hurricanes are storms measuring Category 3 or higher, consisting of winds of at least 111 mph.

                    In the current season, there have been two tropical storms so far.

                    The WSI forecast is lower than both the 1950 to 2014 normal of 12 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes as well as the more recent "active period" from 1995 to 2014 of 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

                    "Although we've had a couple of early storms (Ana and Bill), all of our best dynamical/statistical models continue to suggest a relatively inactive tropical Atlantic season this year," Todd Crawford, WSI chief meteorologist, said. "The combination of cool tropical Atlantic temperatures and a strengthening El Niņo will combine to provide an unfavorable environment for both development and intensification going forward."

                    El Niņo is characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and La Niņa by unusually cool temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.

                    On May 27, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its Atlantic hurricane season outlook and expects a 70% likelihood of six to 11 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes with zero to two rising to major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. While a below-normal season is likely at 70%, the agency warned there is also a 20% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of an above-normal season.

                    NOAA will issue an updated outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.

                    Colorado State University issued an updated forecast June 1, which raised its expectation for named storms by one, but suggested that a "well below-average" season could take place and that a strong El Niņo event is likely.

                    CSU anticipates eight named storms, which was raised from seven in its April 9 forecast due to the formation of Tropical Storm Ana. Its outlook for hurricanes was left unchanged at three as was its forecast for one major hurricane.

                    Private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk on May 27 lowered its forecast for Atlantic activity to about 65% below the 1950-2014 long-term average. That was reduced from 45% below average signaled in its April 9 outlook.

                    The firm expects 10 tropical storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane, which was reduced from 11 tropical storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes forecast April 9.

                    The next update for the 2015 season from Tropical Storm Risk will be made July 6.

                    WSI will issue its next update on the 2015 tropical season July 21.


                    https://www.snl.com/InteractiveX/Art...33065300-14132

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                    • #11
                      Crickets?

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                      • #12
                        I guess we got two new systems today now being tracked by NHC which shows some level of things ramping up.

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                        • #13
                          the obligatory, 'aren't storms net bearish these days?' post.

                          in all seriousness, i would love to get something going in this market, but until there is a cat 4 or 5 headed to the GOM, not sure you get more than a few cents storm premium. just the pikers will play the others. hope i'm wrong.

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                          • #14
                            Crickets lol

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                            • #15
                              So Danny Boy is the 1st of the year. Looks like land masses are going to take it's toll. Thinking it bounces off the south coast of Cuba, crosses the Yucatan as TD, reforms into a TS in the GOM and soaks east Texas at the end of the month.

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