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Storage for EIA report date 9/17/15

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  • Storage for EIA report date 9/17/15

    this weeks storage poll is for week ending 9/11 and reported by EIA on 9/17


    observations:
    total degree days came in 8 higher than the week prior according to NOAA, with both stronger HDD and CDD totals.
    the increase in CDD helped increase generation demand by an estimated 2bcf over the week prior despite the reduction from the Labor Day holiday.
    industrial and residential use declined by around the same margin from the holiday effect, keeping total week over week demand relatively flat.
    nuclear, hydro, and wind output all running stronger than both last year and average keeping gas generation use somewhat contained on a weather adjusted basis. even with this, weather adjusted burns continue to average over 4.5bcf/d higher than last year.
    supply remains within the tight range held for much of the summer, down by an estimated 1bcf over the week prior. the reduction was seen primarily from Canada where weakening Northeast pricing is starting to push out imports.




    storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) --
    last week: 80 (77cdd 3hdd)
    previous week: 72 (70cdd 2hdd)
    same week last yr: 67 (59cdd 8hdd)
    avg: 56 (45cdd 11hdd)
    next wk fcst 79 (44cdd 10hdd)
    * source: NOAA


    storage:
    same week last yr: 90
    5-yr avg: 75
    *note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls

    my estimate is 71 bcf
    37
    Below 65 bcf
    0.00%
    0
    66 to 70 bcf
    18.92%
    7
    71 to 75 bcf
    32.43%
    12
    76 to 80 bcf
    40.54%
    15
    Above 81 bcf
    8.11%
    3

    The poll is expired.


  • #2
    Originally posted by ben2008 View Post
    this weeks storage poll is for week ending 9/11 and reported by EIA on 9/17


    observations:
    total degree days came in 8 higher than the week prior according to NOAA, with both stronger HDD and CDD totals.
    the increase in CDD helped increase generation demand by an estimated 2bcf over the week prior despite the reduction from the Labor Day holiday.
    industrial and residential use declined by around the same margin from the holiday effect, keeping total week over week demand relatively flat.
    nuclear, hydro, and wind output all running stronger than both last year and average keeping gas generation use somewhat contained on a weather adjusted basis. even with this, weather adjusted burns continue to average over 4.5bcf/d higher than last year.
    supply remains within the tight range held for much of the summer, down by an estimated 1bcf over the week prior. the reduction was seen primarily from Canada where weakening Northeast pricing is starting to push out imports.




    storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) --
    last week: 80 (77cdd 3hdd)
    previous week: 72 (70cdd 2hdd)
    same week last yr: 67 (59cdd 8hdd)
    avg: 56 (45cdd 11hdd)
    next wk fcst 79 (44cdd 10hdd)
    * source: NOAA


    storage:
    same week last yr: 90
    5-yr avg: 75
    *note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls

    my estimate is 71 bcf
    Thanks Ben,
    next three numbers.

    Comment


    • #3
      my following three are currently: 103, 97, 104

      Comment


      • #4
        What about Ice? Thanks in advance

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by lecturer View Post
          What about Ice? Thanks in advance
          74/75 75 trades

          Comment


          • #6
            Hey Ben, next week's TDD totals should be 54 and not 79 if it is 44+10 or else your 103 injection would have to be ramped way down.

            Comment


            • #7
              Who thinks EOS is going to be below 3.9?

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by gassymax View Post
                Who thinks EOS is going to be below 3.9?
                Not me. My simple methods have me at 3.99 still (9 more injections).

                Comment


                • #9
                  [QUOTE=gassymax;137933]Who thinks EOS is going to be below 3.9?[/QUOT


                  unreal.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Updated, WX Based Numbers

                    This THU EIA Number: 73

                    WK Ending CDD/HDD/Bcf

                    18-Sep-15 ... 43 / 15 / 103
                    24-Sep-15 ... 46 / 10 / 101
                    01-Oct-15 ... 36 / 18 / 101
                    08-Oct-15 ... 27 / 40 / 95

                    ON AVERAGE - TROFFING in the West, ridging in the East next 2+ weeks, with an essentially zonal-like flow across much of North America keeping Temps warmer than normal well into early OCT.

                    El Niņo: 'Officially' (NOAA), 3.4 Region is at +2.3˚C, and is still strengthening; expect to peak in NOV well over +2.5˚C, and potentially close to +3.0˚C When viewed in the context of both oceanic and atmospheric indicators, will certainly be in the same 'Super' class of the 1997/98 event.

                    Steve
                    Tomorrow's Weather Today

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Steve - is your EOS somewhere in the 4.05 TCF range?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by JVC View Post
                        Steve - is your EOS somewhere in the 4.05 TCF range?
                        Yep - EOS 4.044 Tcf

                        Steve
                        Tomorrow's Weather Today

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          75 bcf atm, but expecting 80 to balance last weeks number. Eos at 4017 bcf.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Trouble with Shoulder Season

                            Is it won't be much of a shoulder this year due to warm weather into October and then a quick turn to colder later in November due to El Nino modulating to warmest in Nino 3.4 and then winter will be cold in East and especially SE. El Nino's are not all alike, super or not.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Dti tco

                              TCO within normal range this week at 7
                              DTI down to 4

                              anybody know why?

                              Comment

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