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Storage for EIA report date 9/24/15

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  • Storage for EIA report date 9/24/15

    this weeks storage poll is for week ending 9/18 and reported by EIA on 9/24


    observations:
    last week came in much cooler than the week prior, but still slightly warmer than average and warmer than the same week last year.
    it was the coldest week since storage week ending May 29th.
    the increase in HDD lead to a 10bcf improvement in Residential/Commercial and Industrial use.
    the loss of CDD reduced Generation use by an estimated 40bcf. generation use was also much weaker last week on a per degree basis as high wind output in Texas and Mid Continent reduced burns by upwards of 2bcf/d.
    nuclear output was down by over 4,000MW/d as refueling season has begun.
    supply was estimated weaker on the week by around 3bcf as imports were cut in response to the lower demand and pricing in the Northeast.
    U.S. production levels are also bumping up against the lower end of the range we have held for much of the summer.



    storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) --
    last week: 52 (39cdd 13hdd)
    previous week: 80 (77cdd 3hdd)
    same week last yr: 75 (40cdd 35hdd)
    avg: 55 (38cdd 17hdd)
    next wk fcst 56 (46cdd 10hdd)
    * source: NOAA


    storage:
    same week last yr: 96
    5-yr avg: 83
    *note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls

    my current estimate is 101 bcf
    32
    Below 90 bcf
    0.00%
    0
    91 to 95 bcf
    6.25%
    2
    96 to 100 bcf
    37.50%
    12
    101 to 105 bcf
    53.13%
    17
    Above 106 bcf
    3.13%
    1

    The poll is expired.


  • #2
    Originally posted by ben2008 View Post
    this weeks storage poll is for week ending 9/18 and reported by EIA on 9/24


    observations:
    last week came in much cooler than the week prior, but still slightly warmer than average and warmer than the same week last year.
    it was the coldest week since storage week ending May 29th.
    the increase in HDD lead to a 10bcf improvement in Residential/Commercial and Industrial use.
    the loss of CDD reduced Generation use by an estimated 40bcf. generation use was also much weaker last week on a per degree basis as high wind output in Texas and Mid Continent reduced burns by upwards of 2bcf/d.
    nuclear output was down by over 4,000MW/d as refueling season has begun.
    supply was estimated weaker on the week by around 3bcf as imports were cut in response to the lower demand and pricing in the Northeast.
    U.S. production levels are also bumping up against the lower end of the range we have held for much of the summer.



    storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) --
    last week: 52 (39cdd 13hdd)
    previous week: 80 (77cdd 3hdd)
    same week last yr: 75 (40cdd 35hdd)
    avg: 55 (38cdd 17hdd)
    next wk fcst 56 (46cdd 10hdd)
    * source: NOAA


    storage:
    same week last yr: 96
    5-yr avg: 83
    *note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls

    my current estimate is 100 bcf
    Thanks Ben,
    next three numbers.

    Comment


    • #3
      my following three are currently 98, 99, 100

      Comment


      • #4
        What about Ice? Thnks

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by lecturer View Post
          What about Ice? Thnks
          All trades for the next 5 EIAs

          98/100/100/100/90

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by diogenes View Post
            All trades for the next 5 EIAs

            98/100/100/100/90
            Thanks diogenes..going towards 4 tcf..

            Comment


            • #7
              4 TCF is just about a done deal...those are some gigantic numbers that will make bulls squeal like pigs...yikes...

              Comment


              • #8
                Is it even operationally possible to inject enough to get to 4tcf? If it is has to be getting kind of close to daily and EOS ratchts for certain facilities and I don't want to own gas. If it's not I certainky don't want to own gas. Did I mention I don't want to own gas?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Bentek's s/d model output of 94, 91, 96 for the next 3 looks mysteriously low. Is it possibe supply is running better than they are reporting and/or burns are even weaker than they are reporting?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    [QUOTE=muzd;138201]Bentek's s/d model output of 94, 91, 96 for the next 3 looks mysteriously low. Is it possibe supply is running better than they are reporting and/or burns are even weaker than they are reporting?[/QUOTE

                    PointLogic at + 80..... and they've been saying this for 2 days now... if they're right we're going to have a mini rally.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by muzd View Post
                      Bentek's s/d model output of 94, 91, 96 for the next 3 looks mysteriously low. Is it possibe supply is running better than they are reporting and/or burns are even weaker than they are reporting?
                      Maybe they are considering strong nuke outages...stronger than market expectation..they have been pretty aggressive on their estimates, predicting higher power burns last week..

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by lecturer View Post
                        Maybe they are considering strong nuke outages...stronger than market expectation..they have been pretty aggressive on their estimates, predicting higher power burns last week..


                        Nuclear refueling season is expected to be much busier than last fallís outage season. Thirty units totaling 30,874 MW are planning to go offline this year, a 36% increase over last yearís fall refueling season. Total lost nuclear generation is expected to be 23.1 million MWh, the equivalent of 173.6 Bcf of natural gas.
                        Nuclear Reactor Operating Capacity 21-September at 89 %.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          90 or 100 is same chit...too much gas...
                          We won't tank much more until we get some confirmation of a mild winter in the coming months. Don't see any rally either.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            [QUOTE=Romed;138203]
                            Originally posted by muzd View Post
                            Bentek's s/d model output of 94, 91, 96 for the next 3 looks mysteriously low. Is it possibe supply is running better than they are reporting and/or burns are even weaker than they are reporting?[/QUOTE

                            PointLogic at + 80..... and they've been saying this for 2 days now... if they're right we're going to have a mini rally.
                            Interesting. TDD totals are pretty low.

                            I started glancing at the pipeline critical notices and caught this.

                            https://infopost.spectraenergy.com/i...mbed=2&pipe=TE

                            Looks like they aren't taking some production, but I don't know how long that has been going on or anything, whether it was happening last week, etc. Anyone heard of pipeline problems?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Robry drops the bomb with a 107 prediction

                              Comment

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