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Storage for EIA report date 9/24/15

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  • #46
    Originally posted by flows View Post
    All I know is we have enough gas for winter now.
    What if we get a nuclear winter? There's an angry little boy in the Pacific getting upset the world isn't paying attention to him.

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    • #47
      Originally posted by MoleculeMan View Post
      What if we get a nuclear winter? There's an angry little boy in the Pacific getting upset the world isn't paying attention to him.
      I know!! Let's send Dennis Rodman to take care of that problem . . . .

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      • #48
        Originally posted by flows View Post
        All I know is we have enough gas for winter now.
        Soon we will have enough for two winters...

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        • #49
          Originally posted by bobbya1999 View Post
          Weren't you guys saying ERCOT wind helped with this one?
          EROCT+MISO wind generation had notable strength week-on-week.

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          • #50
            Yes, but how much did that contribute? I feel like I read 1-2 Bcf/day?

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            • #51
              Originally posted by bobbya1999 View Post
              Yes, but how much did that contribute? I feel like I read 1-2 Bcf/day?
              Average "ng replaced by wind" for Sept is running 3.00/day...there were 4 days that ran 2.5/day over the average...which I would argue accounts for the entire miss from 98 to 106. I would agree with a comment made by muzd last week that price action of late pivots on wind variance. The market also appears "max bearish"...which is when it typically turns. I'm a buyer of Nov all the way down to 2.40...with a stop below that. Continue to believe the skew is 3-to-1 to the upside. Whether you believe in "el nino" winter or not, we went from 3.60 - 4.40 in about 6 days last year...and ran over all the bears. Once Oct rolls off the board, the story switches to end of March. Getting rid of 400 bcf from now until then requires being 2/day tight...which we are pretty much at right now...so it seems a touch early to want and go pick up additional switching in the 2.50-2.30 price range, "pre-winter". Not that you have to be bullish, but waiting for a decent bounce to reset shorts seems prudent...imho.

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              • #52
                Originally posted by wholemilk View Post
                Average "ng replaced by wind" for Sept is running 3.00/day...there were 4 days that ran 2.5/day over the average...which I would argue accounts for the entire miss from 98 to 106. I would agree with a comment made by muzd last week that price action of late pivots on wind variance. The market also appears "max bearish"...which is when it typically turns. I'm a buyer of Nov all the way down to 2.40...with a stop below that. Continue to believe the skew is 3-to-1 to the upside. Whether you believe in "el nino" winter or not, we went from 3.60 - 4.40 in about 6 days last year...and ran over all the bears. Once Oct rolls off the board, the story switches to end of March. Getting rid of 400 bcf from now until then requires being 2/day tight...which we are pretty much at right now...so it seems a touch early to want and go pick up additional switching in the 2.50-2.30 price range, "pre-winter". Not that you have to be bullish, but waiting for a decent bounce to reset shorts seems prudent...imho.
                Here is a link where you can look at the ERCOT wind stuff for last week. Like Diogenes said, it was big. In fact, it is the best looking week I have ever seen for wind that I remember.

                http://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/genera...ration/2015/09

                I'm not, however, sure how that is bullish in the slightest. Fall and Winter are going to be the windiest times in the ERCOT areas where wind generation is generally located. By a substantial amount. So, if more wind generation in the fall and winter, that means less demand for natty and therefore more overall available supply so they don't need to pull from storage and . . . .

                That is one of the things that is stupid about overbuilding wind for grid power in TX-- when we need the power tends to be on hot summer days.

                By the way, the Tooth Fairy was a fake. This El Nino is for real.

                We are getting and if the forecasts are right going to continue to get for the next two weeks a pretty substantial and pretty sustained batch of anomalous westerly winds that should have the effect of driving more warm water to the west and northwest of Nino 3.4 toward and into Nino 3.4. The ocean currents should facilitate the movement of this warm water further east-- the seasonal current changes appear likely to work synergistically with the westerly wind anomalies.

                Last year $3.60 to $4.40 in early November a salute to the winter before and one early storm, not fundamentals, then very quickly down, down, down to below $3.00, where it has pretty much stayed because there is too much supply. There would be too much supply without El Nino. With El Nino it could get downright silly.

                [actually, I'm going to double check my numbers before I spout off].
                Last edited by TimeOnTarget; September 24th, 2015, 02:39 PM.

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                • #53
                  106 and the price goes up 7 cents.

                  I do sometimes wonder if I am trying to figure out something that has absolutely no rhyme or reason.

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                  • #54
                    Shorts locking in profits. Too many people (me included) were looking for 2.50 so smart money got out just before. Don't see any reason to be long here other than to try take adv of potential for more short covering. Gas fundamentals still v. poor but price already reflects much of that. I'd buy oil and forget about gas at these levels now that the downward trend has been broken. Weird day but must respect the market. GL.

                    Originally posted by TimeOnTarget View Post
                    106 and the price goes up 7 cents.

                    I do sometimes wonder if I am trying to figure out something that has absolutely no rhyme or reason.

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                    • #55
                      Originally posted by MikeJ View Post
                      Shorts locking in profits. Too many people (me included) were looking for 2.50 so smart money got out just before. Don't see any reason to be long here other than to try take adv of potential for more short covering. Gas fundamentals still v. poor but price already reflects much of that. I'd buy oil and forget about gas at these levels now that the downward trend has been broken. Weird day but must respect the market. GL.
                      Thanks. That is probably good advice. I have definitely learned not to take big moves granted-- I was expecting a big power burn this summer, but I was thinking that to get as big as it did we would have to drop to close to 2012 prices. Wrong.

                      But, now I am really intrigued by the potential of the new production coming online at about the same time the El Nino should be having a noticeable effect.

                      It seems to me that if those two get going together, it could lead to some surprising moves, particularly with storage as full as it is.

                      Ah well, I guess constantly checking the price for natty is better than constantly checking your watch . . . .

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                      • #56
                        Originally posted by Bubba gump gas View Post
                        So Mr. Evans is the outlier once again, even a broken clock is right twice a day however I think his success rate pales in comparison to the grandfather clock......
                        Well...tim Evans pretty much nailed that one...I guess he was watching the wind blow

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