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Storage for EIA report date 10/1/15

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  • Storage for EIA report date 10/1/15

    this weeks storage poll is for week ending 9/25 and reported by EIA on 10/1


    observations:
    the warmer than normal trend continues keeping total CDD above both last year and average and HDD below last yr and avg. relative to the week prior, total degree demand was very similar.
    the slight week over week improvement in CDD totals increased generation use by around 4bcf.
    residential/commercial use also increased by around 2bcf on the week despite similar total HDD.
    demand on a weather adjusted basis is calculated as stronger last week by nearly 1bcf/d.
    total supply was similar to the week prior, up by only 1bcf as slight improvement in domestic output was offset by low imports.
    LNG imports into the Everett facility dropped to zero last week after running around 0.25 for much of the summer.



    storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) --
    last week: 54 (41cdd 13hdd)
    previous week: 52 (39cdd 13hdd)
    same week last yr:54 (32cdd 22hdd)
    avg: 56 (30cdd 26hdd)
    next wk fcst 52 (43cdd 9hdd)
    * source: NOAA


    storage:
    same week last yr: 110
    5-yr avg: 94
    *note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls

    my current estimate is 99 bcf
    28
    Below 94 bcf
    7.14%
    2
    95 to 99 bcf
    32.14%
    9
    100 to 104 bcf
    57.14%
    16
    105 to 109 bcf
    3.57%
    1
    Above 110 bcf
    0.00%
    0

    The poll is expired.


  • #2
    Right now looking at a scrape of 60/7/32

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by ben2008 View Post
      this weeks storage poll is for week ending 9/25 and reported by EIA on 10/1


      observations:
      the warmer than normal trend continues keeping total CDD above both last year and average and HDD below last yr and avg. relative to the week prior, total degree demand was very similar.
      the slight week over week improvement in CDD totals increased generation use by around 4bcf.
      residential/commercial use also increased by around 2bcf on the week despite similar total HDD.
      demand on a weather adjusted basis is calculated as stronger last week by nearly 1bcf/d.
      total supply was similar to the week prior, up by only 1bcf as slight improvement in domestic output was offset by low imports.
      LNG imports into the Everett facility dropped to zero last week after running around 0.25 for much of the summer.



      storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) --
      last week: 54 (41cdd 13hdd)
      previous week: 52 (39cdd 13hdd)
      same week last yr:54 (32cdd 22hdd)
      avg: 56 (30cdd 26hdd)
      next wk fcst 52 (43cdd 9hdd)
      * source: NOAA


      storage:
      same week last yr: 110
      5-yr avg: 94
      *note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls

      my current estimate is 99 bcf
      Thanks Ben,
      next three numbers.

      Comment


      • #4
        my following three are currently: 100, 89, 82

        Comment


        • #5
          Last week was higher than expectations.
          The trend has been one week higher and the next lower so I would expect a number to the bullish side this week.
          If we have another bearish number this week, I definitely see us over 4.0 tcf.
          Currently, I am just under 4.0.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by diogenes View Post
            Right now looking at a scrape of 60/7/32
            What about Ice diogenes? Thnks

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by lecturer View Post
              What about Ice diogenes? Thnks
              97/99

              EOS 3970/80 73 goes last

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Sirvivor View Post
                Last week was higher than expectations.
                The trend has been one week higher and the next lower so I would expect a number to the bullish side this week.
                If we have another bearish number this week, I definitely see us over 4.0 tcf.
                Currently, I am just under 4.0.
                me too but lets be patient and regardless it makes no difference to the game ahead- 3.9 or 4.1 is peanuts in the energy game- is there more production- have we turned the corner on production- blah blah

                Comment


                • #9
                  Ninety percent of this game is half mental

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Nicaragua View Post
                    me too but lets be patient and regardless it makes no difference to the game ahead- 3.9 or 4.1 is peanuts in the energy game- is there more production- have we turned the corner on production- blah blah
                    @Nicaragua --

                    Normally I'd feel that way about 100-200 BCF. But in this case, there is something resembling a potential window, or perhaps a glass floor, that I don't recall seeing anything with the potential setup we have currently for a major crash.

                    To clarify, that window would be in mid-late November to early December. And what would potentially break it would be warmer than normal temperatures that lead to minimal to nonexistent withdrawals until early December.

                    Normally that wouldn't be that big a deal. But, I'm getting the feeling that another 100 BCF looking for a storage home in late November is going to be the equivalent of sky-diving with a pack full of laundry instead of a parachute.

                    No, it isn't especially likely to happen. But if you were going to pick a year to bet that there would be an unseasonably warm November that resulted in no net withdrawals from storage during the latter half of the month, this might not be a bad year to bet on.

                    Anyway, I think I see at least more potential for early inning excitement than you do.

                    Of course, it may just be that I am a little excitement starved lately . . . .

                    On the other hand, I snooped a couple of pipeline bulletin board pages today and sure didn't see any dramatic increases in flow. I really am not expecting much until mid-November - mid-December, but I did think I might see a bit more flow from the new projects coming online. U2GC looks like it is going pretty much full bore, but other than that, not much else seemed to have changed.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      EIA # Tthis THU: +101

                      Next 3 Weeks (EXTREMELY Volatile run-to-run model variations- some of widest seen this time of year. Very Low Confidence for weeks 2 and 3)

                      WK ENDING CDD.. / HDD.. / BCF
                      01-Oct-15: .. 39 .. / 18 ... / 100
                      08-Oct-15: .. 17 .. / 45 ... / 96
                      15-Oct-15: .. 20 .. / 42 ... / 99

                      Steve
                      Tomorrow's Weather Today

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        97s going at a decent clip this fine morning.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Can hear a pin drop around here today...

                          Assuming 98ish Thursday and 100 next week, the balance looks too loose to me. Nukes still coming off, lower index for Oct and multi-week prod maintenance starting soon should help tighten things some. Wx looking less bearish but still neutral at best.

                          Barring a stronger cold shift, still feels like a mostly sideways, maybe continued slow grind lower, type of market to me until we get closer to November.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by CH4vsWx View Post
                            Can hear a pin drop around here today...

                            Assuming 98ish Thursday and 100 next week, the balance looks too loose to me. Nukes still coming off, lower index for Oct and multi-week prod maintenance starting soon should help tighten things some. Wx looking less bearish but still neutral at best.

                            Barring a stronger cold shift, still feels like a mostly sideways, maybe continued slow grind lower, type of market to me until we get closer to November.

                            Next week report, Oct 08 (Preliminary Data Collection ) 110 Bcf .
                            I don't know what you mean by sideways ? November lost $0.30 in less then three weeks.We haven't test low of the year of $2.44 ...November OI is a monster 295000..with the last two weeks of October being mild temperatures what do you think is going to happen ?
                            Attached Files

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Romed View Post
                              Next week report, Oct 08 (Preliminary Data Collection ) 110 Bcf .
                              I don't know what you mean by sideways ? November lost $0.30 in less then three weeks.We haven't test low of the year of $2.44 ...November OI is a monster 295000..with the last two weeks of October being mild temperatures what do you think is going to happen ?
                              Poor choice of wording I suppose - I've been bearish the winter strip and still am. Hard numbers this time. If weather doesn't turn colder, $2.45-$2.55 is my target for X. Not a whole lot of downside from here but I do expect some tightening in the next week so maybe a small rally to fade. Looking forward, obviously if weather remains mild (or even normal), plenty of downside to Z, F and G.

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