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Storage for EIA report date 10/15/15

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  • Storage for EIA report date 10/15/15

    this weeks storage poll is for week ending 10/9 and reported by EIA on 10/15


    observations:
    a much colder week with 26 more HDD than the week prior and 24 fewer CDD. however, compared to both average and the same week last year, the week was slightly warmer.
    the cooler week over week colder changes increased residential/commercial and industrial heating use by an estimated 18bcf. it reduced generation use by around 13 bcf, making total demand up by around 4bcf.
    exports to mexico are beginning to subside as summer heat is dissipating, however export levels remain up by nearly 1bcf/d over last year in response to all the new gas fired power generation in northern mexico.
    supply was estimated down relative to the previous week by around 3bcf as higher imports were more than offset by domestic production declines due to increased pipeline maintenance.
    line maintenance is scheduled to remain very high over the next two weeks as several lateral projects along with new compressor stations are in process.




    storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) --
    last week: 57 (14cdd 43hdd)
    previous week: 55 (38cdd 17hdd)
    same week last yr:69 (23cdd 46hdd)
    avg: 66 (19cdd 47hdd)
    next wk fcst 57 (20cdd 37hdd)
    * source: NOAA


    storage:
    same week last yr: 96
    5-yr avg: 87
    *note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls

    my current estimate is 91 bcf
    33
    Below 85 bcf
    9.09%
    3
    86 to 90 bcf
    33.33%
    11
    91 to 95 bcf
    48.48%
    16
    96 to 100 bcf
    6.06%
    2
    Above 101 bcf
    3.03%
    1

    The poll is expired.


  • #2
    my following three are currently: 82, 57, 58

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    • #3
      Thanks, Ben.

      Comment


      • #4
        A lot of nukes down, like 16 for a big chunk of the week and a couple at less than max. I also took a quick glance at ERCOT wind and it looked pretty lame.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by TimeOnTarget View Post
          A lot of nukes down, like 16 for a big chunk of the week and a couple at less than max. I also took a quick glance at ERCOT wind and it looked pretty lame.
          miso and pjm were weak also, but this week is complete opposite

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by YodaMonkey View Post
            miso and pjm were weak also, but this week is complete opposite

            The estimated gas substitute of the 16 nuclear closures is 3 Bcf/d.

            99 Nuclear plants.
            16 Shutdown
            9 Partial shutdown.
            77 Fully operational.

            Comment


            • #7
              What about Ice? Thanks in advance..

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              • #8
                Originally posted by lecturer View Post
                What about Ice? Thanks in advance..
                90 goes last
                87/91

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                • #9
                  My EIA number for this THU: 91

                  OUTLOOK for Week
                  ENDING


                  Date CDD / HDD/ Bcf *
                  15-Oct 23 ../ 34 . / 90
                  22-Oct 13 ../ 65 . / 71
                  29-Oct 10 ../ 58 . / 80 **

                  * Storage model still undergoing revision

                  ** Run-to-Run model forecast Temp solutions for time periods beyond 8-10 days have consistently been varying by ~ 30 HDD! In other words, for the week ending 29-OCT, Forecast HDD's have varied from ~ 45 to ~75. This is mainly due to the very strong, progressive and semi-zonal flow from the NORPAC eastward across most of North America. (A 'classic' El Nino type pattern.)

                  For the Week ending 29-OCT, last nights' 00Z run came up with 76 HDD, while the 12Z run this AM was 47. With the general tendency to verify closer to the warmer solutions, my current forecast calls for 58 HDD for that week.

                  This see-saw type forecast pattern has been going on for 3 weeks now - truly amazing. It's also worth noting there's little significant difference between the GFS and ECMWF models - both are showing wide variations between major cycle runs.

                  Steve
                  Last edited by Steve Gregory; October 13th, 2015, 03:05 PM.
                  Tomorrow's Weather Today

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Steve Gregory View Post
                    My EIA number for this THU: 91

                    OUTLOOK for Week
                    ENDING


                    Date CDD / HDD/ Bcf *
                    15-Oct 23 ../ 34 . / 90
                    22-Oct 13 ../ 65 . / 71
                    29-Oct 10 ../ 58 . / 80 **

                    * Storage model still undergoing revision

                    ** Run-to-Run model forecast Temp solutions for time periods beyond 8-10 days have consistently been varying by ~ 30 HDD! In other words, for the week ending 29-OCT, Forecast HDD's have varied from ~ 45 to ~75. This is mainly due to the very strong, progressive and semi-zonal flow from the NORPAC eastward across most of North America. (A 'classic' El Nino type pattern.)

                    For the Week ending 29-OCT, last nights' 00Z run came up with 76 HDD, while the 12Z run this AM was 47. With the general tendency to verify closer to the warmer solutions, my current forecast calls for 58 HDD for that week.

                    This see-saw type forecast pattern has been going on for 3 weeks now - truly amazing. It's also worth noting there's little significant difference between the GFS and ECMWF models - both are showing wide variations between major cycle runs.

                    Steve
                    Thanks Steve --

                    That is most helpful information.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by flows
                      ......83
                      Wild thang...I THINK I LOVE YOU.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Transco +5.6 bcf last week

                        Transco just reported +5.6 bcf last week...big increase from previous week of only +2.1 bcf.


                        Columbia and Dominion both came out with relatively bullish injections in my opinion on Monday....now Transco(which is less important and less consistent comes out with surprisingly bearish #.

                        I think tomorrows # could have some bullish implications still...but this huge transco injection along with a 12z that is slighlty milder than previous run makes me a little wary of prices heading back down below $2.50 today...think I'll be short the next hour

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by gabeh73 View Post
                          Transco just reported +5.6 bcf last week...big increase from previous week of only +2.1 bcf.


                          Columbia and Dominion both came out with relatively bullish injections in my opinion on Monday....now Transco(which is less important and less consistent comes out with surprisingly bearish #.

                          I think tomorrows # could have some bullish implications still...but this huge transco injection along with a 12z that is slighlty milder than previous run makes me a little wary of prices heading back down below $2.50 today...think I'll be short the next hour
                          old news brudda

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                          • #14
                            ok I think i was wrong...looks like Oct 24 is showing much colder than normal wx now....if that carries through the next couple of days of forecasts we will see rally

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                            • #15
                              woo...10/26....big time HDD

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